November 19, 2009

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact: Tina Haisman, ASBPA Media Relations, 239-292-2882 or media@asbpa.org
Ken Gooderham, publisher, 239-489-2616 or exdir@asbpa.org

'Sea-level rise - facing our future' is focus of beaches journal

What will rising seas means to shorelines and communities (both human and natural)? A national coastal journal says local variables and responses, keeping long-range perspective and insisting on facts rather than frenzy will make a major difference in eventual impacts.

The Fall 2009 issue of Shore & Beach tackles the mounting issue of sea level rise (SLR) or, more accurately, what potential future SLR may mean for our coasts.

According to the editors: "We don't concern ourselves in this issue with the horrific consequences of SLR of this magnitude. But we do attempt to look at what more modest changes in sea level could mean to coastal concerns - beaches, ecosystems, and economies alike - topics ripe for exploration."

Among the findings related by the issue's authors:

•    The big picture, so far, has been gloomier than originally projected. However, local variables could significantly affect the SLR impact, a factor that must be considered in any analysis and anticipatory action.

•    SLR impacts will move beyond simple inundation as sea levels increase, based on divergent factors such as geology, oceanography, sediment supply, and (of course) human activity. These factors will create a challenge for coastal scientists, engineers, and planners who seek reliable predictions on widespread SLR impacts. Site-specific studies can determine that some options viable over a decade could prove unwieldy and unbearably expensive in the lens of a half-century or more.

•    Local communities will need to debate and decide these crucial issues with a minimum of frenzy and a maximum of facts. Policymakers need an accessible structure to discern a reasonable and simpler path through a complex minefield of issues, which include planning, management, sustainability, economics, and more.

•    There will be no "one size fits all" answer to SLR's impact on coastal inlets, whose mechanics and impacts will also be dramatically affected as water levels rise.

•    Even within a contiguous coastline, SLR impact will vary greatly. Beaches starved of new sand, plagued by higher erosion rates and more intense storm events will cry out for help - particularly in areas where human activities limit viable options for response even as they increase the pressure to act.

•    But the focus cannot be only how SLR affects human actions, since its impact will cut across the species spectrum. A look at the west coast's largest estuary highlights how broadly this fragile environment could be affected by the expected encroachment of rising waters.

As described in the issue's introduction: "Over the past 20 years the study of sea level has become a scientific cottage industry, with an explosion of papers published every year. ... There are still some 'deniers' around who claim 'global warming' is a mass delusion, a hoax or fraud. But the scientific results become clearer and more compelling every day that Earth is warming, that fossil fuel use by people is at least partly responsible, and that many of the consequences (including accelerating SLR) will not be good.

"We use ... 'deniers' as opposed to 'skeptics,' since all of us, especially scientists, are supposed to be 'skeptics' ? in that we should always question and re-examine methods and conclusions. Skepticism is a good thing, but denial in the face of overwhelming evidence isn't. The science of SLR is not really a 'debate' and shouldn't be characterized that way. The politics, of course, is a different matter; but, even here, to suggest leaving it to politicians to argue about whether sea level is rising is a disservice.

"The real debate is not whether sea level is rising, but what to do about the impacts if sea level continues to rise or if it rises at much faster rates than it has in the past. ... Given the weight of the observations, we need to consider the implications and the costs of possible future SLR scenarios. And we need to continue to do this as more and better observations and modeling accumulate over time."

Shore & Beach is a peer-reviewed technical journal focusing on coastal management issues, published quarterly since 1933 by the American Shore & Beach Preservation Association.

For more information, visit www.asbpa.org.

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